Carbon Insights

Methodology centre

Carbon Insights publishes desk metrics with named sources, update cadence, a calculation outline, and clear limits. This hub is the map; Method tabs and Learn articles hold the detail.

Model output for desks. Not investment advice.

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Short answer. Carbon Insights publishes desk metrics with named sources, update cadence, a calculation outline, and clear limits. This hub is the map; Method tabs and Learn articles hold the detail.

  • Day+1 EU ETS demand

    Sector demand estimated for the prior day so desks see tons before the verified print.

    Sources
    Power generation and outage feeds, industrial activity proxies, aviation and maritime inputs where in scope.
    Cadence
    Daily (Day+1). Revisions when upstream feeds correct.
    Calculation outline
    Bottom-up sector nowcast → EUA-ton mapping → desk card with as-of time. Modelled vs observed is labelled on the product.
    Limitations
    Not a substitute for verified emissions. Incomplete coverage days and late feed fixes can revise prior Day+1.

    Sample Day+1 cardLearn: Day+1

  • EUA price forecast and reform pricing

    Policy and balance inputs priced as €/t by maturity on Scenario Desk (Status Quo vs Live Reform).

    Sources
    Commission / Parliament / Council texts, registry balance context, Scenario Desk element set.
    Cadence
    Updated when reform elements or balance inputs change.
    Calculation outline
    Element status → supply/demand path → fair-value view by maturity. Uncertainty stays explicit.
    Limitations
    Model output for professionals, not investment advice. Texts and votes can still change.

    Sample reform cardLearn: Scenario Desk method

  • EU carbon trading signals

    Auction cover, COT-style positioning, and near-term price context before the next move.

    Sources
    EEX primary auctions, positioning prints, secondary price context.
    Cadence
    Per auction / per positioning release.
    Calculation outline
    Primary vs secondary gap, cover, and positioning extremity stacked with Day+1 where relevant.
    Limitations
    A single auction or COT print is not a full trade thesis. No unsupported buy/sell badges.

    Sample signal cardLearn: trading signals

  • REMIT outage analytics

    MW offline by fuel across FR, DE, ES, IT, PL so power-sector EUA demand can be sized early.

    Sources
    REMIT / TSO-style outage feeds for the five markets.
    Cadence
    Intraday event updates; latency depends on source.
    Calculation outline
    New vs active outages → fuel and MW → link to Power Forecast and Day+1 power demand.
    Limitations
    Megawatts without tons are incomplete. Coverage is the five named markets.

    Sample REMIT noteLearn: REMIT analytics

  • ETS Data Explorer (registry)

    Union Registry surplus, plant long/short, and windfall/shortfall valued at auction averages. Operated by Carbon Insights, not the Commission.

    Sources
    EU Union Registry extract, Commission TNAC notices, EEX (and ICE UK to 2020) auction averages, EEA history where used.
    Cadence
    Tied to registry snapshot and Commission notice dates shown in the explorer.
    Calculation outline
    See Method on the explorer for surplus identity, net position, scopes, and groups.
    Limitations
    Not live who-holds-what. Not Day+1 emissions. Not an official registry UI.

    Explorer MethodWhat is the explorer

  • API and MCP

    Same desk numbers in your stack: authenticated HTTP API and MCP tool access.

    Sources
    Carbon Insights product APIs on the live desk models.
    Cadence
    Versioned endpoints; see product docs for auth and dictionary.
    Calculation outline
    Machine access mirrors the desk products; no second copy of truth.
    Limitations
    Requires trial or contracted access. Do not cite /api/* as public product truth.

    Data accessAPI product page