EU ETS mechanics
How Scenario Desk works: from signal to fair value
Six steps that turn raw policy signals into model updates and a fair value to trade against.
Updated 2026-08-10 · Model output for professionals · Not investment advice
What the desk delivers
A live picture of EU ETS policy; a continuously updated reform view (31 actors × 36 elements); numbers not narrative (threshold-gated model deltas); and a daily fair value with UNDER / OVER / FAIR on a 63 trading-day horizon.
The loop
Source collection (hourly across RSS, scrapers, actor monitors, EP streams) → filter & classify into actionable vs context streams → human-in-the-loop sense-check → formula-driven probability update → S/D model run → threshold-gated dashboard publish. Then back to step 1.
From probability to balance
Weighted scores feed a bottom-up, installation-level model on both sides. Demand: power & heat, industry, aviation, maritime. Supply: cap, free allocation, auctions, MSR. Wired to a daily emissions feed so current-year demand reflects what is happening on the ground.
From balance to fair value
A calibrated, walk-forward price framework anchored on the TNAC trajectory. Contango, positioning, open interest and macro fold in daily. Asymmetric UNDER / OVER thresholds; 63 trading-day horizon and cooldown.
FAQ
- Does every news item re-run the model?
- No. A relevance filter strips most noise. Only Stream A (actionable) signals trigger the run after analyst sense-check. Context stays in Voices & Context.
- Is the fair value investment advice?
- No. It is model output for professional desks: structure for your own book, not an order ticket.