02 · Fundamentals · before consensus
How we turn policy into a balance, and balance into a price view
What is the daily fair value on this reform path?
Four forces move EUA: balance, policy, positioning, and cross-fuel economics. Scenario Desk reads all of them into a weekly balance and a daily fair value with UNDER / OVER / FAIR.
Carbon InsightsMethod
What you get on the desk
Turn a reform into a balance, then a fair value, before the market has repriced.
Method
The desk loop
Policy → weighted probabilities (31 actors × 36 elements) → fundamental balance → daily fair value with UNDER / OVER / FAIR.
Balance refreshes weekly (ad-hoc on bigger policy events). Fair value updates daily as the curve, positioning and macro move. Model output for desks that act: not investment advice.
Maturity
Per-maturity price frame
Same reform shock, different curve points the trade is maturity-aware.
Maturity
Dec-26
€/t · Mt
Maturity
Dec-27
€/t · Mt
Maturity
Dec-28
€/t · Mt
Maturity
Dec-29
€/t · Mt
Maturity
Dec-30
€/t · Mt
Publishes
What it publishes
01 · Output
Live reform view: 31 political actors × 36 elements
02 · Output
Fundamental S/D balance and TNAC (weekly + ad-hoc)
03 · Output
Daily fair value with UNDER / OVER / FAIR (63 trading days)
04 · Output
Status Quo vs Live Reform paths
Scenario stack
Inside Scenario Desk
01 · Module
Scenario Desk
How we turn policy into a balance, and balance into a price view.
02 · Module
Reform Tracker
Overview, elements, political map, and EU Parliament on one page.
Desk
How it feeds the trade
01 · Use
Policy monitoring → weighted probabilities → balance → fair value
02 · Use
Balance refreshes weekly; fair value updates daily with the curve and positioning
03 · Use
Walk-forward UNDER / OVER track record sits next to the live path
Trial
Want the live desk?
01 · Data