EU ETS mechanics
Status Quo vs Live Reform on Scenario Desk
Two paths. One balance. Do not mix the vote filter with the fair-value path.
Updated 2026-08-10 · Model output for professionals · Not investment advice
Status Quo
The path under current rules without the live legislative rewrite. Your baseline for “if nothing passes,” and the reference the Live Reform delta is measured against.
Live Reform
Probability-weighted reform view across 31 political actors × 36 elements, fed straight into the fundamental S/D model. New TNAC, balance and supply/demand numbers come out on the weekly cycle (and ad-hoc on bigger policy events).
Filter discipline
Per-element vote filters belong on the vote block only. The full live market-impact path stays unfiltered so desks do not accidentally rewrite fair value when they explore a chamber view.
FAQ
- Why not one blended number only?
- Desks need to see what is law versus what is politics. Blending without showing both paths hides risk.