What drives EUA prices?

EUA prices move when the forward supply path, near-term demand, or positioning flows change. Policy and MSR set the multi-month shape; Day+1 demand and auctions set the day-to-day fight.

Treat drivers as a map, not a single-factor story. Desks that only track headlines miss the stack that actually clears.

Auction calendars, MSR intake/release from TNAC, free allocation phase-out, and reform text. These dominate multi-month curve shape.

Scenario Desk turns those levers into Mt and €/t by maturity. Supply is not a vibe; it is a calendar and a stock metric.

Power burn (weather, outages, renewables), industry activity, aviation and maritime. Day+1 Carbon Demand is how desks see this before verified prints.

Power is usually the largest short-horizon swing. Pair REMIT outages and Power Forecast with Day+1 totals so MW offline becomes tons, not only a headline.

Compliance hedging, utility hedges, speculative positioning, and surrender-season behaviour. Seasonality is real but never a rule by itself.

Auction cover and COT say whether primary and secondary agree. Signals time the trade; they do not replace the balance.

Start with Carbon Demand for Day+1. Add Scenario Desk for reform → balance → fair value. Use Market Signals for auctions and COT before you size the move.

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