Markets & hedging
What drives EUA prices?
Supply sets the path. Demand and flows set the day.
Updated 2026-08-05 · Model output for professionals · Not investment advice
Supply stack
Auction calendars, MSR intake/release from TNAC, free allocation phase-out, and reform text. These dominate multi-month curve shape.
Demand stack
Power burn (weather, outages, renewables), industry activity, aviation and maritime. Day+1 is how desks see this before verified prints.
Flows and seasonality
Compliance hedging, utility hedges, speculative positioning, and surrender-season behaviour. Seasonality is real but never a rule by itself.
FAQ
- Is weather the main EUA driver?
- Weather matters through power demand and renewable output. It is one demand input, not the whole market.